Thursday 06 April, 2023
The following is an update to the first quarter 2023 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the first quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual first quarter 2023 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on May 4, 2023. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 917 | 930 – 970 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.8 | 7.0 – 7.4 | Increased volumes due to higher uptime at Prelude and QGC in Australia |
| Underlying opex | 1.3 | 1.2 – 1.4 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.4 | 1.2 – 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.9 | 1.0 – 1.4 | Q4’22 included favourable movements in deferred tax positions |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation: expected to be at a similar level compared to Q4’22. | |||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,859 | 1,800 – 1,900 | |
| Underlying opex | 3.0 | 2.3 – 2.8 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.9 | 2.8 – 3.1 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.9 | 2.4 – 3.2 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Q1’23 Profit of joint ventures and associates (PJVA) and Exploration well write offs (WWO) are expected to be in line with the historical averages (2018 – 2022 quarterly averages: PJVA ~$0.3 billion, WWO ~$0.2 billion). | |||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,543 | 2,250 – 2,650 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.3 | 1.8 – 2.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.4 | 0.2 – 0.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.2 | 0.1 – 0.4 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Marketing results: expected to be higher than Q4’22. | |||
Chemicals & Products
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Indicative refining margin | $19/bbl | $15/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $37/tonne | $140/tonne* | The chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to reflect a loss for Q1’23. |
| Refinery utilisation | 90% | 89% – 93% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 75% | 70% – 74%* | |
| Underlying opex | 3.1 | 2.6 – 3.0 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.8 | 0.8 – 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.0 | 0.1 – 0.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimization: expected to be significantly higher than Q4’22. *The indicative chemicals margin assumes a standard level of production. The Q1’23 realised chemicals margin is expected to be below ~$100/tonne, mainly due to lower utilisation from slower than expected ramp-up of Shell Polymers Monaca (US). | |||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | 0.3 | 0.1 – 0.7 |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) | (1.2) – (0.9) | Outlook includes one-off tax charges |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q4’22 | Q1’23 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | |||
| Tax Paid | 4.4 | 2.6 – 3.4 | |
| Working Capital | 10.4 | (3) – 3 | Working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty, exacerbated by market volatility in the first quarter. |
| Other Considerations | |||
| – | |||
Guidance
For guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities see the Q4 2022 Quarterly Databook (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on 27 April 2023.
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