Shell plc Q4 2024 Update Note

The following is an update to the fourth quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the fourth quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual fourth quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on January 30, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.

Integrated Gas

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d)	941	880 – 920	Scheduled maintenance at Pearl GTL in Qatar in Q4’24.
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)	7.5	6.8 – 7.2	Lower feedgas, and fewer cargos due to the timing of liftings.
Underlying opex	1.1	1.0 – 1.2
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation	1.4	1.2 – 1.6
Taxation charge	0.9	0.5 – 0.8
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be significantly lower than Q3’24, driven by the (non-cash)  impact of expiring hedging contracts. Q4’24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.3 billion.

 Upstream

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d)	1,811	1,790 – 1.890
Underlying opex	2.1	2.2 – 2.8
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation	2.7	2.4 – 3.1
Taxation charge	2.4	2.3 – 3.1
Other Considerations:
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q4’24 is expected to be ~$0.3 billion. Q4’24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.4 billion.

Marketing

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Sales volumes (kb/d)	2,945	2,600 – 3,000
Underlying opex	2.7	2.4 – 2.8
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation	0.6	0.4 – 0.8
Taxation charge	0.3	0.1 – 0.4
Other Considerations:
Marketing results are expected to be lower than Q3’24, reflecting seasonality.

Chemicals and Products

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Indicative refining margin	$5.5/bbl	$5.5/bbl
Indicative chemicals margin	$164/tonne	$138/tonne	The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to reflect a loss in Q4’24.
Refinery utilisation	81%	74% – 78%
Chemicals utilisation	76%	73% – 77%
Underlying opex	2.1	2.0 – 2.4
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation	0.9	0.8 – 1.0
Taxation charge / (credit)	(0.1)	(0.6) – (0.1)
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q3’24, reflecting seasonality.

Renewables and Energy Solutions

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
Adjusted Earnings	(0.2)	(0.6) – (0.1)

Corporate

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
Adjusted Earnings	(0.6)	(0.4) – (0.2)

Shell Group

$ billions	Q3’24	Q4’24 Outlook	Comment
CFFO:
Tax paid	3.0	2.3 – 3.1
Derivative movements	0.1	(2) – 2
Other	(0.4)	(2) – (1)	CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an ~$1.3 billion outflow related to timing of payments of emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG* and US Biofuel programmes.
Working capital	2.7	(1) – 3	Q4’24 Working Capital movements is expected to include a ~$1.0 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes.
Other Shell Group Considerations:
The taxation charge across segments includes the annual reassessment of deferred tax assets and one-off tax hurts.
Non-cash post tax impairments / (impairment reversals)   (These items are reported as identified items)		1.5 – 3.0	Renewables & Energy Solutions Marketing Upstream Integrated gas Chemicals & Products	0.8 – 1.2 0.4 – 0.6 0.1 – 0.5 0.1 – 0.5 0.1 – 0.2
Net debt is expected to include $4 – 6 billion of new lease liabilities recognised in Q4’24, including the recognition of the LNG Canada pipeline liability.

*Brennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz (Fuel Emissions Trading Act)