The following is an update to the third quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the third quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual third quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on October 31, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 920 – 960 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.3 – 7.7 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.1 – 1.3 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 – 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 – 1.1 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q2’24. | ||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,740 – 1,840 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.9 – 2.5 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.3 – 2.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.0 – 2.8 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q3’24 is expected to be ~$0.1 billion. Q3’24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.1 billion. | ||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,750 – 3,150 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 – 2.9 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.4 – 0.8 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.2 – 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q2’24. | ||
Chemicals and Products
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Indicative refining margin | $5.5/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $164/tonne | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to reflect a marginal loss in Q3’24. |
| Refinery utilisation | 79% – 83% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 73% – 77% | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 – 2.5 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.8 – 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | (0.3) – 0.1 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be lower than Q2’24. | ||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.4) – 0.2 |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.7) – (0.5) |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q3’24 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | ||
| Tax paid | 2.5 – 3.3 | |
| Derivative movements | (2) – 2 | Derivative movements and working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |
| Working capital | 0 – 4 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
| – | ||
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on October 23, 2024.