UK markets made marginal gains this week with the FTSE 100 Index rising by 0.8% to trade at 7,400 points at the time of writing.
Investors have so far reacted positively to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s first budget, in which he revealed plans to balance the UK’s finances.
The Autumn statement revealed the government’s intention to freeze both income tax thresholds and inheritance tax until April 2028, lowering the top income tax rate to £125,000, slash the capital gains tax allowance to £6,000 next year and cut the dividend tax-free allowance to £500 in 2024. The Chancellor also proposed £30 billion in spending cuts.
Coincidingly, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasted the UK economy would shrink by 1.4% this year and would not recover to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2024.
The pound sterling rose back above $1.19 on Friday to trade at its highest level in three months as investors welcomed the new budget. Retail sales in the UK increased 0.6% month-on-month in October of 2022, after falling an upwardly revised 1.5% in September, beating market forecasts of a 0.3% rise.
Increases were seen in all main sectors apart from food stores, where sales fell 1%, due to the increased cost of living and food prices. Retail sales volumes remain 0.6% lower than pre-pandemic levels in February 2020 and compared to October 2021 retail sales are 6.1% lower.
Commodity markets
In the commodity markets, Brent crude futures traded around $89 per barrel on Friday and are set to end the week more than 7% lower as a weakening demand outlook overshadowed supply-side concerns.
Resurgent Covid outbreaks in China quashed hopes of a reopening and clouded the demand outlook in the world’s top crude importer. Concerns also remain that monetary tightening by major central banks could tip the global economy into recession, which would have a negative effect on energy demand.
The supply outlook for oil remains uncertain heading into winter, with the European Union set to ban Russian crude flows from December, while OPEC is expected to keep oil markets tight.
Gold prices remained steady around $1,760 an ounce on Friday, pulling back from $1,780, after hawkish US Federal Reserve messaging suggested more interest rate hikes than the markets anticipated, pushing back against expectations of a Fed pivot.
US Equity Markets
US equity futures rose on Friday, after investors continued to digest the latest earnings reports. Still, the major US indexes are set to end the week lower after Federal Reserve officials commented that the interest rate policy is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.
The US 10-year Treasury yield moved towards 3.8%, bouncing back from a one-month low of 3.7% reached earlier this week, after the euphoria of a possible Federal Reserve pivot last week began to reduce. With inflation only starting to ease after hitting decades-high levels and signs that the US economy remains resilient, the job market remaining tight and US consumers continuing to spend, the Federal Reserve has little choice but to continue with their hawkish stance.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 222,000 on the week ending November 12th, below expectations of 225,000, pointing to a continuously tight job market despite the surge in large layoffs from large tech companies.
US housing starts in the US declined 4.2% month over month, after falling by a downwardly revised 1.3% in September. The US housing market has been hit by soaring prices of materials and rising mortgage rates, recently reaching their highest level since 2001.
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