UK markets regained traction this week with the FTSE 100 Index rising by 2.1% to trade at 7,630 points at the time of writing.
Investors began to switch back to riskier assets with signs that the banking crisis is slowing down. There was also speculation that a peak in interest rates is near.
The UK economy expanded slightly in the fourth quarter of 2022, a stronger performance than previously anticipated, though it remains smaller than its size before the pandemic as elevated inflation and high interest rates hit economic activity.
Gross domestic product grew 0.1% from October to December compared with the previous three month period, in contrast to the stagnation previously estimated in February, according to data from the Office for National Statistics released on Friday. The result, after a more narrowly revised 0.1% contraction in the third quarter of 2022, means the country averted a technical recession, which requires two consecutive quarters of declining output.
UK house prices fell more than expected and by the most since 2009 in March, according to data from mortgage provider Nationwide.
House prices fell by an annual rate of 3.1% in March, following a 1.1% decline in the previous month and marking the largest year-on-year drop since July 2009, data showed on Friday. That was a larger fall than the 2.2% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
The average house price has now fallen to £257,000, down from a peak of about £274,000 in August.
Elsewhere, low paid workers will receive a pay rise set to match inflation as the UK’s minimum wage increases to £10.42 per hour from April, the Low Pay Commission said on Friday. This represents a 9.7% increase on 2022 and means 2 million workers will now be paid at or close to the statutory earnings floor.
Commodity markets
In the commodity markets, Brent Crude futures traded around $78 per barrel on Friday and are headed for the second straight weekly advance, underpinned by supply concerns and an improving demand outlook.
A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey tightened the market this week, and seemed unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
Saudi Arabia also said that OPEC+ should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, which was recently clouded by the banking turmoil.
On the demand side, investors remain optimistic about China’s recovery, with PetroChina and Cnooc Ltd saying a rebounding domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth.
Gold traded around $1,975 an ounce on Friday and is set to gain over 8% in March, as investors speculated that interest rates have likely reached near their peak in this tightening cycle. Expectations were driven by easing global inflationary pressures and efforts by major central banks to avoid a broader banking crisis. The recent banking turmoil also had a significant increase on safe haven demand for gold this month.
Equity markets
US equity futures made slight gains on Friday after the market rallied for two straight sessions, as investors are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for interest rates and the banking sector.
In Thursday’s regular trading session The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 0.57% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.73%, with all three benchmarks set to finish the week higher.
The number of weekly jobless claims reached 198,000, up 7,000 from the prior week, adding to optimism that the Federal Reserve will soon bring an end to its rate hike cycle.
The American economy expanded at an annualised 2.6% on quarter in the last three months of 2022, slightly less than initial estimates of a 2.7% rise.
Considering full 2022, US GDP expanded 2.1%. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.23% as of 30th March 2023, the lowest in six weeks and down from 6.42% in the previous week, according to a survey of lenders by mortgage giant, Freddie Mac.
Economic uncertainty continues to bring mortgage rates down, bringing borrowers back to the market but low inventory remains a key challenge for prospective buyers. Investors will now be looking to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index figures due on Friday that will offer insight into the likely future path of interest rate rises.
The information provided in this communication is not advice or a personal recommendation, and you should not make any investment decisions on the basis of it. If you are unsure of whether an investment is right for you, please seek advice. If you choose to invest, your capital may be at risk and the value of an investment may fall as well as rise in value, so you could get back less than you originally invested.