UK markets saw slight declines this week, with the FTSE 100 Index falling by 0.64% to trade at 7,600 points at the time of writing.
UK wage growth accelerated in May, despite the job market beginning to cool, with the median wage cited in UK job adverts increasing by 7.2% compared to a year earlier. This was the fastest pace seen in data stretching back to 2019, based on a cross-country wage tracker published by the job search website, Indeed. It was also in contrast to the US, where wage growth has slowed sharply, and also in most Eurozone countries, where wage growth has steadied in recent months.
A recent pay deal for nurses in the NHS was cited as one factor and April’s increase in the statutory minimum wage was also likely to have pushed up average wages. Pay pressures in the UK have been stronger than in other countries as workers are facing comparatively higher inflation.
UK house prices registered the first annual contraction in more than a decade in May, as prospective buyers were hit by higher mortgage rates. Property prices were 1% down last month, compared with May 2022, the first annual fall since December 2012. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors warned on Thursday that expectations about further interest rate rises are likely to add downward pressure on the market in the months ahead.
The Bank of England said the average rate for new mortgages rose to 4.5% in April, the highest since 2008. Markets are expecting the UK central bank to raise interest rates again at the next monetary policy meeting on June 22nd, from 4.5% to 4.75%, and are pricing in a move above 5% by the end of the year.
Retail sales in the UK rose 3.7% on a like-for-like basis in May 2023 from a year earlier, slowing from a 5.2% growth in April, as soaring food prices reduced spending on non-essential items and dashed expectations of a boost from three public holidays.
Commodity markets
In the commodity markets, Brent crude futures traded around $75 per barrel on Friday, and are set to end the week unchanged, driven by conflicting demand and supply factors. Earlier in the week Saudi Arabia announced it will cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day, in a bid to prop up oil prices, after a meeting of the OPEC+ group of producers in Vienna on Sunday.
Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, could also have its production targets lowered, although this was subject to review. Meanwhile the UAE will be able to increase its production. On the demand side, global economic fears continued to hold back oil prices. News that the US and Iran have reached a temporary nuclear agreement that would allow Iran to resume oil exports of around 1 million barrels a day sent Brent prices tumbling over 4% on Thursday. However both countries denied the report, causing oil to recover most of its losses.
Gold traded around $1,960 an ounce on Friday and is on track to end the week higher, underpinned by a softer Dollar, as a surge in US weekly jobless claims reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hiking cycle next week.
US equities
US equity futures were relatively unchanged on Friday, after seeing strong gains on Thursday, with the S&P 500 Index closing at its highest level for 2023, entering official “Bull Market” territory. In Thursday’s regular trading session The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 0.62% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.02%. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 261,000 last week, the highest reading since October 2021, far exceeding forecasts of 235,000. As a result, markets are now pricing in a 76% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. However, a 0.25% rate increase in July is still expected.
The International Monetary Fund on Thursday urged the US Federal Reserve and other global central banks to “stay on the course” on their monetary policy paths and remain vigilant in combatting inflation. Focus now shifts to the US consumer price inflation report for May, which is due on June 13th, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which will provide further clarity about the health of the world’s largest economy.
Elsewhere, the US trade deficit widened by the most in eight years in April, as imports of goods rebounded, while exports of energy products declined. This could potentially result on a big drag on US economic growth in the second quarter.
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